Good Reasons To Be Optimistic
by Evan Vanderwey on 12/08/09 at 3:11 pm
Take heart! We have good reasons to be optimistic. Not cautiously optimistic, but just plain optimistic. And because good news encourages more good news, share these positives with someone you love or like…
- Nationwide, July’s pending home sales saw a 3.6% increase, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. And if you’re keeping track, that’s the longest string of increases since 2003. Why this good news now? A few reasons: 1. We’re gaining lost ground, and we’ve lost a lot of ground in the last two years; 2. Affordability—low prices and continued low mortgage rates work great together; 3 Timing—in addition to low prices, there’s also a sense that the bottoming out of the market has passed, so prices aren’t getting any lower. Now if we can just get the rest of the economy’s numbers (GDP, unemployment rates) to turn…
- Actually, there’s some hopeful news there too. The latest quarterly drop in GDP, about 1%, is much better than the previous quarter’s drop of 6%. Yes, it’s still a drop, but economists are optimistic that this is a slowing trend, an early sign of recovery. And if GDP recovers and moves into positive growth, employment will follow.
- Consumer confidence is still shaky, but this is an indicator that relies heavily on other indicators, particularly unemployment numbers. The more good news we hear about jobs and business, the more confident we are as consumers. So we should expect that this should be trailing the rest. So even this bad news is actually good news.
Is a full economic recovery a certainty? Of course not. But it’s never been a certainty; there’s always been risk—fundamental and necessary risk!—even in boom times. In fact, it was our losing sight of risk that contributed much of these recent woes.
So be optimistic—not foolhardy, just optimistic—and expect good news. And when you hear it, share it. Our economy thrives on transactions like that.
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